Remember back in April, when Hillary was polling seven points better against McCain than Obama was?
Helped by independents, young people and seniors, Clinton gained ground this month in that hypothetical match with McCain, the GOP nominee-in-waiting. She now leads McCain, 50% to 41%, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46% to 44%.
Remember way back in May, when Hillary consistently performed 4% better that Obama in head-to-head matchups with McCain, particularly in swing states?
The results are based on aggregated data from Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 12-25, including interviews with more than 11,000 registered voters nationwide (including Alaska and Hawaii). Across this period, Gallup has found Clinton performing marginally better than Obama in separate trial heats for the general election against McCain. Clinton has led McCain by an average of three percentage points, 48% vs. 45%. Obama has trailed McCain by an average of one point, 45% vs. 46%.
And remember back in August, when Hillary was polling 3% better than Obama against McCain?
Even today, there remain concerns among Clinton backers that Obama does not give the Democratic Party the best chance of defeating McCain and the Republicans in the presidential election. A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 23-24 found the two running similarly in trial heats versus McCain, with Obama and McCain tied (47% to 47%) but Clinton having a slim but not statistically significant advantage over McCain (49% to 46%).
There's another late August poll I'm still looking for - the last head-to-head with both candidates against McCain. Hillary outperformed Obama by 5%.
Soooo... what did people say coming out of the voting booth on Election Day? Same damn thing. Hillary's still the better candidate. PERIOD. She would have outperformed Obama's seven point lead by another four points.
As voters left the polls on Election Day, many were asked how they would have voted if the election match-up were between Hillary Clinton and John McCain rather than Barack Obama and McCain. 52 percent said they would have backed the former Democratic candidate; 41 percent would have voted for McCain, wider than Obama's 7-point margin over McCain.
Interestingly, 16 percent of McCain voters said they would have voted for Clinton, the Democrat, if she had been her party's nominee.
I note with amusement the double back somersaults being performed by the cheetos to explain this pervasive, robust finding. This finding is invariant across, time, poll methodology, and all the other factors. It resisted the best attempts of the Democratic leadership and the blogger boyz to demonize Hillary and give the nomination to Obama. Sure, they pulled that inside-politics coup off, but they didn't fool the American electorate, who still rated Hillary as the superior candidate on Election Day, as they have for the last eight months.
For reasons unknown to us mortals, the Democratic party leadership insisted on nominating an inferior candidate this time, and, thanks to the economic meltdown, it didn't cost them the election. They got away with it this time, but let's hope it's not a long-term strategy. |
