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Alegre's Corner
We're not finished folks - not by a long shot!

The Incredible Shrinking Barack - Gallup Tied

by: campskunk

Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 22:14:36 PM EDT


Before Hillary suspended her campaign, she consistently outpolled Obama in head-to-head matchups with John McCain. Incredibly, even AFTER she suspended her campaign, she still had a comfortable 8% lead over John McCain two weeks ago.

However, for some unfathomable reason, the DNC preferred to favor the weaker candidate... and now we see the results. Barack is out of gas, and it isn't even Labor Day yet.

Here are the Gallup tracking poll results...

campskunk :: The Incredible Shrinking Barack - Gallup Tied
The presumptuous nominee has lost his cachet, and it's still a long way to go until November.

Remember the Kerry death march in 2004? Thanks to Not Your Sweetie's excellent blog, we get a peek at the numbers from four years ago today...

Kerry 51 Bush 46 (with leaners)

...and it was all downhill from there, as Not Your Sweetie points out...

A bit of history is offered:

Four years ago today, John Kerry led George W. Bush by four points (49% to 45%) and by five with leaners (51% to 46%). That matched his best day ever and was the last time he enjoyed such a sizable lead. At this point four years ago, the Democratic National Convention had already been held.

If Obama successfully rigs the convention becomes the nominee, he's gonna need a post-convention bounce of at least five points... just to catch up with loser John Kerry.

WAKE UP SUPERDELEGATES!!!
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The Incredible Shrinking Barack - Gallup Tied | 46 comments
Well, McCain is saying very early on (0.00 / 0)
the emperor has no clothes.  Wish Hillary had.  The Village is going nutz of course.  The emperor does have clothes!  People vote on message and biography now!  Experience and principles are "old politics"!  But if I were mcCain I would keep beating that drum.  When you have a candidate on video saying "we are the ones we've been waiting for"(an aside...can Obama stop sending me creepy letters with that phrase?  Anyone who didn't think they were the one they had been waiting for in the primary, ain't going to buy it now), it's pretty easy to go past the Village straight to the poeple and say look, this guy is naked.

Medicare for All is Civil Rights
Did you see Moses part the see for the Obama seal (0.00 / 0)
that might be too funny to put on TV.
[ Parent ]
Obama could be super courageous (0.00 / 0)
and make a Big Speech: "America, I was reflecting on myself. And I realized something new about myself: I am in over my head. I'm not ready for this job. And since Hillary got more votes than I did, I am going to do something in the name of unity - I am going to take my name out of the nomination."

He will go down in history as the King of Unity.

Talk about unity is about all BO has in mind. (0.00 / 0)


Medicare for All is Civil Rights
[ Parent ]
Just visualize it before bed tonight, masslib! (0.00 / 0)
If your last dream was a premonition, we can make this happen.
[ Parent ]
He's in Over His Head All Right (0.00 / 0)
Waaaaaaaaaay over his head.  I think he was originally planning for a run as VP. They probably never dreamed Howie and the rest of the DNC would pull off this theft on his behalf.

I mean seriously - amateurs at work here folks.  They fire a good chunk of the more experienced folks at the DNC - move the jobs to Chicago and replace them with people who don't know what the feck they're doing.

Hmmmmmm... now WHERE have I seen that before?

Sound familiar folks?

Invest in Women - Change the World
http://twitter.com/alegrescorner

[ Parent ]
Oh don't kid yourself, the folks in Chicago (0.00 / 0)
know how to get around an election, but it's a lot easier to rig the caucuses and push the SD's into your corner than it is a GE.

Medicare for All is Civil Rights
[ Parent ]
Seriously - He's in Over His Head (0.00 / 0)
I hear 'tings ;o)

Invest in Women - Change the World
http://twitter.com/alegrescorner
[ Parent ]
Well, yeah. I talking about the Chicago machine, not their candidate. (0.00 / 0)


Medicare for All is Civil Rights
[ Parent ]
His lead will go back up since Obama is now FOR offshore drilling (0.00 / 0)
hahahaha (0.00 / 0)
now THAT is hilarious. is there anything this guy WON'T flipflop on? is his name still obama, or did he change that, too?

Barack Obama's election proves that any male can grow up to be president, provided he's willing to use misogyny as a campaign strategy.
[ Parent ]
it's not a real flip flop (0.00 / 0)
because his main message is to flip flop so that we can all get along.  

Hillary - alternative energy
[ Parent ]
August 2 update: (0.00 / 0)

Gallup holds at tie of 44 - 44.  I guess the playing field is leveled.

p.s.

Doesn't the letter "M" come before "O" in the alphabet?  ("L, M, N, O"; yes, it does!)  Has anyone noticed that when the cable news shows put the two names up (probably the non-cable stations do this too) on the screen, they always put Obama's name first.  I thought the tradition was to put names in alpabetical order.  Even Fox News puts:  Obama  44  McCain  44 (for example).  Are they afraid of appearing racist by putting names in proper alphabetical order?

[ Parent ]
Denver, We Have a Problem! (0.00 / 0)
Seriously folks - when will we find enough Supers to stop this trainwreck from happening?

Invest in Women - Change the World
http://twitter.com/alegrescorner
earth to rationality? (0.00 / 0)
I don't hear anything. I fear we have cowards. All we can do it take names and place blames, after Barack loses and McCain stretches out military farther.  

Hillary - alternative energy
[ Parent ]
I think the next few days will be key (0.00 / 0)
Jerome Armstrong seems to think Obama is widening his lead, and that this poll is an outlier; the next two days will be key.

McSame in this poll has never polled outside of 40% to 44%. Obama has never polled outside of 45% to 49%, except for this past day at 44%.

I tend to agree with Jerome here -- I think Obama is widening his lead.

you're kidding, right? (0.00 / 0)
his lead is closing, but it need not stay that way. he needs to figure out what he's doing wrong and fix it.  I'm giving him suggestions, he needs to take everyone's suggestion to think about now.  He's got the nom, his job is to win, and that means he needs to see that this isn't good and figure out how to correct it.  

Hillary - alternative energy
[ Parent ]
gee, i wonder what code blue was doing over there ;-) (0.00 / 0)
yes, it's part of obama's mad skillz in widening his lead by having his numbers go down.

i love the way the obamazoids think of mccain's and obama's numbers as two entirely separate entities, and using the two trend lines as two data points to support their premise. i guess it would be tacky to point out that they're not independent variables, far from it - they have to add up to 100. ah, well. stats isn't their strong suit, faith is.

Barack Obama's election proves that any male can grow up to be president, provided he's willing to use misogyny as a campaign strategy.

[ Parent ]
I refuse to (0.00 / 0)
pay any attention to people that call Senator McCain "McSame". Name calling is inworthy of serious people talking about very serious things.

John McCain is no more George Bush than Obama is JFK. Each candidate should be judged, IMHO, on their own merits. Each is an individual.

I never call Obama anything except Obama because I have NO respect for him but will not call him names. (I do use the "One" since his pal Oprah-rah-rah did.)

Senator Clinton I always call Senator Clinton out of respect.  

[ Parent ]
well, code blue's disguise is wearing a bit thin. (0.00 / 0)


Barack Obama's election proves that any male can grow up to be president, provided he's willing to use misogyny as a campaign strategy.
[ Parent ]
You and I've been telling these people for two days now (0.00 / 0)
that cold blue is a o-bot troll. I wonder when people will get it? DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS! Sheesh.  

I'm a Stantonian Democrat.
[ Parent ]
I do support Sen. Obama (0.00 / 0)
As he is the democratic nominee apparent.

If it should be Hillary instead, I will support her as I did in the primary.

I am a little aghast at how some think that makes me a troll.

What do you guys want me to say? That I hate Sen. Obama? Well, I don't. Perhaps i am mistaken, but I thought this was a place to talk about the democratic party.

[ Parent ]
Considering you're the only one here who (0.00 / 0)
Supports Obama, one has to wonder what you're even doing here. I suspect it's to sew doubt. If I'm wrong, say so. I've a pretty thick skin and if you're going to play on the Internet, you better get one too, and learn how to defend yourself. You say you supported Senator Clinton during the primaries. Why not now? Why Obama? How can you possibly support him after the RBC meeting on May 31st? Tell us your story before you start pushing your ideas. (Not here. Introduce yourself via a diary since we already have so much doubt about you.)

I'm a Stantonian Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Anna, that's not true. Others here have (0.00 / 0)
said they will vote for him, but they don't necessarily like it.  Code Blue is a special case.  But in general there is no litmus test here.  You can vote for Obama.  We won't ask you to leave.  However, this site is devoted to a free and fair nomination process and we support Hillary for President.

Medicare for All is Civil Rights
[ Parent ]
Um (0.00 / 0)
I am not 'code blue'

Thanks for noticing

[ Parent ]
He's got the nom (0.00 / 0)
Anna, with all due respect. He does NOT have the nomination.  

Alice left me in Wonderland.  
[ Parent ]
Convention anyone? (0.00 / 0)
Great point!  I always like to see people reminding others that Obama does not have the nomination yet!

Love your sig line too . . .

[ Parent ]
he's still losing momentum (0.00 / 0)
I fear it's the more people see of him, in the 'once you've heard it,' it starts sounding stale, and the contradictions, the explaining, and now his big mistake, claiming John would use race before he had and when John has a dark skinned daughter.  i think people want to like Barack, and so he starts out strong with most, but then when he doesn't come through they lose their enthusiasm.  

He's not getting it, he has to stop running on his personality, that's not enough and it's starting to be a liability and start talking like a wonk, show some professionalism, show some respect for plans and solutions, stop talking overall theory of how he'd be and start talking about specially what he'll accomplish and how.  

Hillary - alternative energy

Dead On Target (0.00 / 0)
i think people want to like Barack, and so he starts out strong with most, but then when he doesn't come through they lose their enthusiasm.

I give you myself as the classic example of what anna wrote.  After the 2004 convention I thought Barack Obama was the greatest thing since sliced bread. "Here's a guy I can get behind," I thought.  So I started watching for the leadership I just knew was there.

It took almost a year before I realized there is absolutely no substance to this man. No experience, no accomplishments, no leadership.  Nothing.  

I'd have figured it out sooner except that he was so cagey there was little to evaluate.  He kept his head down for three years, letting his flacks do the heavy lifting and carefully avoiding doing anything (including his job) that might place him on the record or cost him a vote.  

Having now lost the luxury of laying low he's quickly digging himself into a hole.  The situation is so clear that it's hard to believe everyone doesn't see it.  Perhaps, as the flip-flops continue, enough SDs will wake up to save the party.  

[ Parent ]
My trajectory too - I found him too reticent (0.00 / 0)
I kept waiting for him to take some initiative, stop hanging back during the debates. Finally I realized if he hasn't jumped out in front with an idea by now, he never will. Oh and I heard he hadn't convened a hearing for that subcommittee, and that he's never been to Europe. That was the final straw.

You need just enough time to get over the dazzling life story. Once you're done digesting that, he's pretty boring. Hillary just gets better with time, she's full of surprises and new ideas.  

[ Parent ]
There is (0.00 / 0)
a fundamental problem - it's called the American people.

Many (most?) do not spend a great deal of time on-line researching candidates and watching the news that the MSM does not give us- and STILL- the voters DO. NOT. WANT. the selectee.

IMHO- he blew it during the primaries- with things like Wright, the bitter comments and his pitiful performance during the debates. Now the voters see him prancing around Europe and changing his mind every other minute on key issues. Just throws him farther dwon the hole he dug for himself.

We get very quiet ads here in NW PA on all the major networks subtly outlining his inexperience and his flip flopping. Obama is running a zillion dollars worth of ads and it is not working. Just like outspending Hillary in the Primaries did not work.

The selectee is toast- burnt toast! (I suppose that's racist too?)

I've Said It Before (0.00 / 0)
If the voters in Iowa had known about Jeremiah Wright BEFORE the caucuses we would have a different nominee.

Iowans really aren't that gullible.  It was no blowout for Obama.  In fact, Obama won only thirty-eight percent of the delegates here.

But that "victory" was enough to start the Obama ball rolling.

I'll never get over the feeling that we Iowans owe the whole country an apology.

[ Parent ]
Maybe His Flip-Flop (0.00 / 0)
on offshore drilling will put him back in the lead solidly.
The Media Is Still Covering Obama's *ss. (0.00 / 0)
Checking CNN, MSNBC, CBS and ABC, the only site to front-page Obama's flip-flop on offshore drilling is CBS.  MSNBC buried it downpage and I can't find any ready reference on either CNN or ABC.
Fox will cover it and the moveon ad about drilling (0.00 / 0)
and they can nudge it back into the news.
[ Parent ]
08.02.2008 Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll (0.00 / 0)
Today's Rasmussen:
Aug 2, 2008:

wo/Leaners (Obama changed by -1)
Obama - 44%
McCain - 43%

w/Leaners (Still the same as yesterday)
Obama - 47%
McCain - 46%

Where's that bounce, Barack?

Self-identified Dems in decline (0.00 / 0)
Also from today's Rasmussen report:

New data released today shows that the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell in July.

From a comment at No Quarter, this number:

Fell for the second straight month. That means since the illegal activities of the DNC/RBC, Dem membership has fallen by 2.5% . That is a lot of PUMA's. I changed to unaffiliated, after 30+ years democrat, on June 2nd 2008.



Alice left me in Wonderland.  

[ Parent ]
The Incredible Shrinking Barack - Gallup Tied | 46 comments
"Always aim high, work hard, and care deeply about what you believe in. When you stumble, keep faith. When you?re knocked down, get right back up. And NEVER listen to anyone who says you can't or shouldn't go on."
Hillary Clinton - June 7, 2008

Hillary Clinton
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