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Alegre's Corner
We're not finished folks - not by a long shot!

ACTION: Ask Pollsters to Include Hillary Again

by: Alegre

Sun Aug 03, 2008 at 23:43:02 PM EDT


Guys this is an action item.  Given the stagnant polls and BHO's inability to close the deal, I think it's time for the polling outfits out there to start including Hillary in some of their models.  Please contact the following polling groups to request that they include HRC in their Presidential polling.  Here's a sample letter - send them an email and ask them to get to the real story in this election.

Dear Pollster X

In light of the recent findings, (Obama is about tied and slipping in a year when more Americans, over 60%, want a Democratic president), and there is currently NO certified nominee, I think the pulse of the American people should be taken again. Hillary was ahead when the last polls like this were done soon after she suspended her campaign.  

And contact information for the big pollsters out there...

Pollsters Rasmussen Reports, LLC
Phone: 732-776-9777
Email: info@rasmussenreports.com  

Quinnipiac University
CONTACT THE POLLING INSTITUTE
275 Mount Carmel Ave.
Hamden, CT 06518-1908
203-582-5201
pollinginstitute@quinnipiac.edu  

Gallup  
Sarah Van Allen
Phone: +1-877-242-5587
or +1-202-715-3030
Fax: +1-202-715-3045
901 F Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20004
email: sarah_van_allen@gallup.com

Make the jump for a bit of discussion...

Alegre :: ACTION: Ask Pollsters to Include Hillary Again
The Financial Times ran an article on Friday that asks the question that's on a lot of our minds these days - why can't BHO close the deal in a year when Dubbya's numbers are in the basement and our economy is hurting in more ways than we can list?  Surely he could repeat Reagan's question - are you better off today than you were four years ago? - and people would rush to his side screaming NO! at the top of their lungs.

Well that's not happening folks and its making people within the party nervous.

Democrats anxious for Obama to widen lead

...a number of Democrats, including advisers to the Obama campaign, are worried that the Democratic party's overall electoral advantage this year has not yet translated into comfortable leads for Mr Obama. On Friday Gallup showed Mr Obama just one point ahead of John McCain - a significant tightening in the past two weeks.
...

With just one month to go before Labour Day - the traditional beginning of the general election - and only three weeks before the Democratic convention, many Democrats fear that time is running out for Mr Obama to overcome the suspicions of this key swing vote.
...

At this stage in the 1988 presidential race, Michael Dukakis, the Democratic candidate, had a 17 percentage point lead over George H.W. Bush, who went on to win the election. John Kerry emerged from the 2004 Democratic convention with a strong lead over George W. Bush only to lose the election as well. In 2008, conventional wisdom says Mr McCain is running a much less effective campaign than either of the Bushes.

That only reinforces disquiet about Mr Obama's inability so far to take a decisive lead. "Even on his worst day, Bill Clinton was able to signal that he understood voters' concerns and that he felt their pain," said Douglas Schoen, a Democratic consultant. "Obama has no trouble with the campaign stagecraft. But this isn't Harvard, it's the beer hall. He has to talk in language that people understand."

Hillary was way ahead in the polls right before she suspended her campaign.  She's won the popular vote.  Neither candidate has enough pledged delegates to win the nomination.  It's time we get the full picture re electability and from what the polls from late May / early June were saying, Hillary's a much stronger candidate when polled in head-to-head match-ups against McCain in the states we Democrats MUST WIN in the general election.

It's time to take another look at those head-to-head match-ups - ask the pollsters to include Hillary in their next round of polls.

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Post Contact Info For Other Pollsters Here (0.00 / 0)
And if you fired something off, share your note with the rest of us. Might give others an idea or two ;o)

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rasmussen did this two weeks ago.... (0.00 / 0)
Here is the link.

...in a poll showing Obama only two points ahead of McCain, including leaners.

However, McCain fares better against Obama than he does against two other prominent Democrats. New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads McCain by eight points, 50% to 42%. Former Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000, leads McCain 50% to 43%.

These numbers help explain why Election 2008 is competitive even though events so heavily favor the Democrats -- because the Republicans are on course to nominate their strongest possible general election candidate but the Democrats are not. Perhaps even more importantly, the data suggests that voters don't see a potential McCain Administration as the third term of President Bush.

...and we should encourage them to keep doing it again and again before the covention. some of those superdelegates have been in the party a long time, and they're getting tired of losing.

Barack Obama's election proves that any male can grow up to be president, provided he's willing to use misogyny as a campaign strategy.


Strongest versus Safest (0.00 / 0)
I disagree that the GOP nominated their "Strongest" candidate.

McCain has shown himself to be week and ineffective so far, even when he catches Obama napping (like last week). The best he's been able to do is tie in Gallup, and what was a tie two days ago has opened back up today to 3 points. Gallup National also routinely underpolled Obama in the primary.

Many conservatives, evangelicals, and other republican base members have long standing issues with McCain. Ask someone like Jay Severin what they think about John McCain off record.

I would say the Republicans nominated their "safest" (not "strongest") cadidate, while the democrats took their biggest risk. I think it's a subtle, but important distinction.

Still, your overall point is valid, in that Obama should (at least IMO) be performing better than he is.


[ Parent ]
They're BOTH Weak (0.00 / 0)
Big reason neither can break past the 50% mark.

Invest in Women - Change the World
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[ Parent ]
If we go by numbers alone (0.00 / 0)
Then Bill Clinton would have been the weakest of all.

But reading numbers this far out can be difficult. And we all knmow Bill Clinton turned out to be the strongest candidate and campaigner in modern history. Perot does complicate matters.

I'm not saying your wrong. There was always something... anemic about the Obama campaign effort, even in the primary.


[ Parent ]
That Was In a 3-Way Race (0.00 / 0)
Apples & oranges.

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[ Parent ]
John Kerry led George W by 4 at this point too (0.00 / 0)
Although a 3-way match, Bill Clinton struggled early on in 1992.

And George W stumbled against Kerry early in the summer. Apples and apples, the point remains: there's way too much time between now and November.


[ Parent ]
Supers Tired of Losing (0.00 / 0)
They're not the only ones!

That's one of the MANY reaons I'm still fighting for Hillary!

Invest in Women - Change the World
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[ Parent ]
seems foolish (0.00 / 0)
that they don't always include her name in polls, since the outcome could be big news and they're supposedly in for profits.  

Hillary - alternative energy

People tend to ignore hypothetical matchups (0.00 / 0)
In 2004, they would routinely poll other democrats against George W. Bush (after the convention), and they would be ahead, but you never know what would be the case if they were the actual opponent.

Clinton can still be the nominee, but I believe it would take extreme circumstances (Obama becomes unwilling or unable to accept the nomination, or there's a huge scandal).

Also, Clinton routinely performed better than Obama against McCain in national tracking polls leading to the conclusion of the primary.


[ Parent ]
Hypothetical Match-ups? (0.00 / 0)
Given that BHO is no more our nominee at this point than Hillary is maybe they shouldn't poll at all eh?

Invest in Women - Change the World
http://twitter.com/alegrescorner


[ Parent ]
And no more than John McCain (0.00 / 0)
The GOP has not held their convention either.

I wouldn't wish harm on John McCain. Hillary caught unnecessary flak for remembering her history, but we all remember what happened to RFK.

I wish they wouldn't do tracking polls this far out, especially nationally. No candidate is technically the nominee.

But if they are going to poll, I agree that you have to poll presumptive nominee versus presumptive nominee. We can't confuse odds of being nominee with actually being (or not being) the nominee.

Now Sen. Clinton has a more likely path to the nomination than, say, a Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, but I feel it is still an almost impossible path. That's just my feeling from listening to the words of the superdelegates and the actions of Sen. Clinton.

I still support your heartfelt drive for her name to be called at the convention and a fair vote to be cast.


[ Parent ]
"Always aim high, work hard, and care deeply about what you believe in. When you stumble, keep faith. When you?re knocked down, get right back up. And NEVER listen to anyone who says you can't or shouldn't go on."
Hillary Clinton - June 7, 2008

Hillary Clinton
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