| Let's look at the crosstabs, and you'll see time and again that Obam's advantage in his favored demographic groups is overwhelmed by McCain's. Starting with gender and age...
Obama polls better among women, right? Um, no. Not Florida women. He's losing the female vote by seven points - MORE than the five-point gap among males. Dissing Hillary Clinton is bad for your political health in Florida, apparently.
And where are all those young people who are going to boost Obama's numbers? Well, they're there, but they're being outvoted by the adults, who are supporting John McCain by large margins. Among the EXTREMELY young (less than 35), Obama is ahead 60%-32%, but in all the age categories above that, McCain is ahead by 12 to 14 point margins. Under 35s are only 17% of the sample, compared to a whopping 30% 65 and over. Running around registering young people isn't a good strategy in Florida. Those geezers will kick your ass every time.
So maybe the Hispanic vote will show up and save Obama...right? Wrong. VERY tepid support for Obama in the state where Hillary took the Hispanic vote. A Survey USA poll out before the primary showed Obama polling at nine percent among Hispanics. NINE PERCENT. Obama's getting a six point advantage over John McCain among Hispanics, and that's just because they're being polite. The black support and Hispanic golf claps is being overwhelmed by a 19% advantage among white voters. All that race card stuff Obama tried throughout the primary season backfired on him.
Twenty percent of Democrats are PUMAs - not too different from the 18% of Republicans supporting Obama. Where Obama loses this election is among independents, where McCain enjoys a nine point advantage. Oops... looks like that "sell out core democratic values in an attempt to lure Rs and independents" strategy didn't work too well, Barack.
But wait...what about the Supreme Court??? SURELY those people will vote for Obama because of the Obama camp's Lolita argument... they have nowhere else to go, right?
Sorry, Obama. Thanks to your sellout and backtracking on "mental distress isn't a real reason", all you get is an 18% advantage among pro-choice voters... which is crushed by McCain's 39% advantage among anti-abortion voters. People would rather take their chances with McCain appointing judges than place any trust in your campaign built on misogyny. You're likable, but I guess you aren't likeable enough.
In summary, a six percent loss in FL in the general election would be about half a million votes (out of a projected 8 million plus turnout). What am I going to do? Well, my vote won't help Obama - he needs another 499,999 votes to be competitive. I could safely vote for him, knowing he'll lose, or I could just not vote. Unlike Lolita, I DO have somewhere else to go, Obama - the house. I could sit at home on election day and still have voted for every legitimately nominated Democratic presidential candidate beginning with McGovern in 1972.
The question I'm wrestling with is, do I want to reward Obama's deplorable campaign tactics with a vote? Is this what the Democratic Party has become? My vote won't matter, as Obama has been telling me all year - and he turned out to be right, not because he didn't want Hillary's 17 point win in the January primary to count, but because he pissed away yet another crucial swing state with his misogyny, flip-flopping, voter disenfranchising and race baiting campaign strategy. I'm a Floridian - my input isn't welcome. My vote - or non-vote - is going to be strictly symbolic, no matter what. Any suggestions about how I should handle this would be appreciated. |
